Situation Monitoring Center

On March 24, 2024, Senegal turned a new page in its history with the election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as president, carried by the movement PASTEF (Patriotes Africains du Sénégal pour le Travail, I’Éthique et la Fraternité) and supported by his key ally, Ousmane Sonko, who became Prime Minister. One year after this resounding electoral victory, it is time to assess the achievements, challenges, and prospects of their first year at the helm of the state.

1. Governance Focused on Reform and Transparency From the moment they took office, Diomaye and Sonko demonstrated their commitment to breaking away from the previous administration by implementing a government of reform. Among their first actions:  Audit of Public Finances: An audit was launched to scrutinize the management of public resources under the previous government. Several irregularities were discovered, and cases have been referred to the judiciary.  Reducing Government Spending: The administration cut back on excessive perks for senior officials, reduced administrative expenses, and streamlined government ministries.  Fighting Corruption: Oversight institutions were strengthened, and new procedures were introduced to ensure transparency in public contracts.

2. Economic Policy Focused on Sovereignty The promise of an economically sovereign Senegal was a key pillar of PASTEF’s program. To fulfill this commitment, several initiatives have been launched:  Renegotiation of Oil and Gas Contracts: The government initiated talks with multinational companies to revise exploitation contracts, ensuring a fairer distribution of wealth for Senegalese citizens.  Support for the Agricultural Sector: An investment plan in agriculture was launched to reduce dependence on imports and boost local production.  Promotion of Local Entrepreneurship: A state investment fund was created to support SMEs and facilitate access to credit.

Despite these efforts, economic growth remains fragile due to global economic uncertainties and financial market tensions.

3. Social Reforms and Education: A Commitment to the People One of the key expectations of the Senegalese people was reducing the cost of living and improving social services. Several reforms have been initiated:  Lower Prices for Essential Goods: Stricter price controls were introduced to curb speculation on food and fuel prices.  Education System Reform: A modernization plan for schools and universities was launched, along with a stronger emphasis on vocational training to match labor market needs.  Improvement of Healthcare Infrastructure: Investments were announced for the construction of new hospitals and improved medical coverage, particularly in rural areas. However, some measures have been slow to take effect, causing frustration among certain groups, particularly teachers and healthcare workers.

4. A More Assertive Foreign Policy and a Shift in Partnerships Under Diomaye – Sonko, Senegal has adopted a more sovereign foreign policy, prioritizing national interests in its international relations:  Strengthening Ties with Africa: Greater emphasis on cooperation with neighboring countries and South-South partnerships.  Reevaluating Agreements with France and the EU: A clear intent to renegotiate some economic and military agreements with France to ensure more balanced bilateral relations.  Diversifying Partnerships: Strengthening ties with Turkey, China, and Russia to broaden economic and technological opportunities. While this approach has been well received by some, it has also caused tensions with Senegal’s traditional partners, particularly regarding security and economic cooperation.

5. Challenges and Future Prospects Despite notable progress, PASTEF’s first year in power has been marked by several challenges:  High Social Expectations: Citizens are eager for tangible results, especially regarding employment and cost-of-living reductions.  Active Political Opposition: The previous regime and other political forces are organizing to challenge ongoing reforms.  Managing Internal Tensions: The leadership dynamic between Diomaye and Sonko is closely monitored, and potential internal disagreements could emerge over key strategic issues. Outlook for Year 2: The coming year will be decisive for PASTEF’s leadership. Expectations remain high, and the success of their reforms will depend on their ability to maintain political stability, accelerate policy implementation, and reassure both domestic and international investors.

Conclusion One year after Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko took office, Senegal is on a path toward change. While significant progress has been made in governance and transparency, major challenges remain. The Senegalese people, who placed great hope in this new administration, now expect concrete improvements in their daily lives. Year 2 of PASTEF’s rule will be crucial in transforming promises into realities and securing this political movement’s place in Senegal’s history.

Guinea-Bissau is facing heightened political tensions as a dispute over the expiration of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s mandate has led to divisions between the government and the opposition. The situation has raised concerns among regional and international observers, particularly following reports of political unrest, restrictions on opposition activities, and the expulsion of an ECOWAS mediation team.

The core of the crisis revolves around a disagreement over the official end date of President Embaló’s five-year mandate. Opposition groups and civil society organizations argue that his term expired on February 27, 2025, exactly five years after he took office. However, the Supreme Court of Justice has ruled that his mandate runs until September 4, 2025, marking five years from when his presidency was confirmed by the court.

Embaló has based his decision to remain in office on the court's ruling and has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for November 23, 2025. However, opposition leaders reject this timeline, accusing him of attempting to extend his rule beyond what they consider constitutionally acceptable.

The ongoing dispute has led to a politically charged environment in the country. Some human rights organizations and opposition groups have reported incidents of:

Government officials have dismissed these allegations, stating that security measures are in place to maintain stability and prevent unrest.

In an effort to resolve the crisis, ECOWAS sent a mediation team to Guinea-Bissau to facilitate dialogue between stakeholders. However, the delegation was asked to leave, signaling a potential breakdown in regional diplomatic efforts. The move has sparked debate, with some seeing it as an assertion of national sovereignty and others as a rejection of regional conflict resolution mechanisms.

The political situation has drawn international attention, with civil society organizations calling for a peaceful resolution. The West African Civil Society Forum (WACSOF) has urged all parties to respect democratic processes and avoid actions that could escalate tensions.

There have also been discussions about the role of foreign governments, with some civil society groups questioning France’s stance on the crisis. Certain organizations have raised concerns about French President Emmanuel Macron’s relationship with Embaló, while others argue that Guinea-Bissau’s political matters should remain independent of foreign influence.

Path Forward: Calls for Dialogue and Stability As Guinea-Bissau navigates this period of political uncertainty, stakeholders—including the United Nations, the African Union, and ECOWAS—are being encouraged to engage in diplomatic efforts to ensure stability. Key areas of focus include:

Conclusion

The ongoing debate over the presidential term remains a central issue in Guinea- Bissau’s political landscape. While the government maintains that the Supreme Court ruling legitimizes Embaló’s continued leadership, opposition groups argue that his term has already expired. As regional and international actors monitor the situation, the coming months will be crucial in determining the country’s democratic trajectory.